Crypto ‘Super Week’ Begins: Fed Cut, Trump–Xi Tariff Talks, and PCE – Will Bitcoin’s Rebound Stick?

2 tygodni temu

Bitcoin (BTC) trades around $115,486; ETH ~$4,218, XRP ~$2.69, ILV ~$12.09 at the time of writing.
FOMC decision — Wed, Oct 29, 20:00 CET. A Reuters poll shows 115 of 117 economists expect a 25 bp cut to 3.75%–4.00%; futures also price it in. Reuters
Bank of Japan — Thu, Oct 30, ~04:30–06:00 CET. Decision window 03:30–05:00 GMT; many analysts see rates held at 0.5% with hawkish dissent possible. Reuters
ECB — Thu, Oct 30, 14:15 CET (press conf. 14:45 CET). Broadly expected to hold at 2% again. European Central Bank
Macro data — Fri, Oct 31: US PCE (13:30 CET) and Eurozone flash HICP (12:00 CET). equalsmoney.com
Geopolitics: Trump–Xi talks are slated Thursday; a draft framework would pause tariffs and China’s rare-earth export curbs. Reuters
Context: Earlier this month BTC hit a record near $126k then tumbled to ~$105k, triggering the largest 24-hour wipeout on record before stabilizing. Reuters
Flows: CoinShares reports heavy ETF flows this month (record $5.95B week earlier; later $513M outflows post-crash; today’s note flags $921M inflows on rate-cut optimism). Reuters
Earnings this week (crypto-linked): Coinbase (COIN) Thu after market, Riot Platforms (RIOT) Thu after market; MicroStrategy/“Strategy” also slated Thu/Fri per calendars. m.fastbull.com

Why markets call it a “super week”

Traders borrow the term for weeks stacked with top-tier central bank decisions and market-moving catalysts, often alongside mega–earnings clusters. It’s widely used in previews when the Fed/BoJ/ECB line up together—exactly the setup we have now. axiory.com

The macro setup in one glance

Fed: Markets and economists expect a 25 bp cut Wednesday—the second easing this year after September’s 25 bp move—amid softer labor signals and a data fog from the US shutdown. A Reuters “Take Five” and poll capture that consensus. Reuters
Quote: “All but two economists… predicted the Fed would lower the interest rate again by a quarter point… on October 29.” Reuters
ECB: After front-loaded easing in 2025, officials have stressed a steady hand; a Reuters poll has all 88 economists calling no change this Thursday. Reuters
BoJ: Governor Ueda has “kept cards close to his chest,” but timing chatter and board hawks mean communication risk is high even if they hold. The decision hits before Europe wakes up. Reuters
Data: US PCE (core)—the Fed’s favorite gauge—lands Fri 13:30 CET; Eurozone flash HICP prints Fri 12:00 CET. Both can re-price the easing path and the dollar. equalsmoney.com
FX & bonds: Ahead of the Fed, Treasury traders trimmed duration while the USD slipped on trade-deal optimism—both supportive of risk. Reuters
Geopolitics: Trump–Xi are expected to discuss tariffs and rare-earths—a swing factor for global risk, semis, and miner tokens. Reuters

Crypto: from crash to cautious rebound

What just happened: After a fresh ATH near $126k, BTC plunged to ~$105k in an event Reuters called the largest 24-hour liquidation on record, before clawing back toward $115k. Reuters
Quote: CoinDesk framed BTC as in a “reaccumulation phase” on easing-bet narratives. CoinDesk
Flows & positioning: Early-October saw record ETF inflows (CoinShares), then post-crash outflows, and—most recently—fresh inflows tied to rate-cut hopes. Net-net: institutions keep using ETFs to add or rebalance. Bloomberg also notes whale wealth moving into ETFs. Bloomberg

What each catalyst could mean for prices

1) Fed (Wed):

Base case (25 bp cut + cautious guidance): Mildly risk-on; BTC retests $116k–$118k and eyes $120k if the USD stays soft. Beware “sell-the-news.” Reuters
Dovish surprise (cut + hint at another): Momentum could extend toward $120k–$122k quickly. Reuters
Hawkish twist (cut but stresses inflation risks): BTC likely ranges $111k–$116k; altcoins underperform. Reuters

2) BoJ (Thu morning CET):
Hold + hawkish dissent often lifts JPY, which can tighten global liquidity at the margin—historically a headwind for high-beta alts during the headline window. Reuters

3) ECB (Thu afternoon CET):
A steady-as-she-goes message keeps Europe side-currents neutral; any hint of renewed cuts in 2026 could support risk into US hours. Reuters

4) Trump–Xi (Thu):
A tariff/rare-earth de-escalation would echo today’s USD slippage/risk appetite—constructive for crypto beta. A relapse raises vol into Friday’s data. Reuters

5) Friday data (PCE, HICP):
A soft core PCE plus benign Euro HICP = tailwind for the “Fed-can-keep-cutting” story. Hotter prints risk a Friday fade. equalsmoney.com

Coin-by-coin: levels, catalysts, risks

Bitcoin (BTC) — Spot ~$115.5k

Levels: Support $111k–$112k, then $105k (crash low). Resistance $120k, then ATH supply zone $125k–$126k. Reuters
Narrative: Dovish Fed + trade thaw favors a push at $120k; otherwise range trade until Friday prints. Citi’s desk notes flows shifting across majors. Reuters
Quote: “Technically a sustained break above $125k could propel BTC to $150k,” a Reuters-quoted analyst wrote earlier. (Use as a scenario, not a forecast.) Reuters

Ethereum (ETH) — Spot ~$4,218

Levels: Support $4,000, then $3,850; resistance $4,300–$4,400.
Narrative: ETF inflows and “digital-asset treasuries” have improved ETH’s year-end profile, per Citi. Watch correlation to BTC on Fed day. Reuters

XRP — Spot ~$2.69

Levels: Support $2.60; resistance $2.90–$3.00 (prior sell zone). CoinDesk
Catalysts: Ongoing regulatory normalization after the SEC dispute and chatter around spot-ETF filings (review milestones ran through Oct 25). Technical traders eye a break of $2.90–$3.00. Reuters

Illuvium (ILV) — Spot ~$12.09

Levels: Support $10.5–$11; resistance $12.8–$13. Recent Rewards v2 update and an October roadmap keep GameFi in view, but token beta remains high. Forbes

Equity tie-ins to watch

Coinbase (COIN) reports Thu after the bell; guidance on retail volumes vs. ETF custody could swing crypto sentiment into Friday. Riot (RIOT) is also Thu AMC; miner opex/production updates matter post-volatility. MicroStrategy/“Strategy” is slated Thu/Fri on various calendars. m.fastbull.com

Expert voices

Fed expectations: “All but two economists… predicted [a] quarter-point” cut this week, per Reuters polling. Reuters
ECB stance: September accounts said policy is “robust enough” to keep steady while clarity improves. Reuters
IMF on BoJ: Hikes should proceed “very gradually” given uncertainties, the IMF advised. Reuters
Market tone: “Bitcoin has surged ever since it briefly broke below $110,000,” noted analyst David Morrison earlier this month. Reuters

Strategy map for the week (not financial advice)

Into Wednesday: Consider event-risk management (smaller sizing, defined stops). BTC likely ranges unless headlines break. Fed cut is base case, but guidance will drive the second move. Reuters
Thursday split-screen: BoJ (pre-dawn CET) can jolt FX/USTs; ECB (afternoon CET) should be calm unless Lagarde hints at 2026 easing; Trump–Xi headlines can quickly swing risk appetite. Reuters
Friday data dump: A soft US PCE & tame Euro HICP support a risk-on close; hot prints argue for fading rallies into the weekend. equalsmoney.com

Quick calendar (CET)

Wed, Oct 29 — FOMC 20:00, Powell 20:30. Federal Reserve
Thu, Oct 30 — BoJ 04:30–06:00 window, ECB 14:15/14:45, COIN & RIOT earnings AMC, Trump–Xi meeting. Reuters
Fri, Oct 31 — Euro flash HICP 12:00, US PCE 13:30. European Central Bank